Climate Induced Migration and Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa
The World Bank and the French Development Agency (AFD) organized the first workshop on climate induced migration and Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa, on 15th and 16th June 2010 at the Marseille Center for Mediterranean Integration in Marseille, France.
For countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA region) forecasting and anticipating human displacements which could be induced by climate related changes will be one of the major challenges of the 21st century. Considered as one of the planet’s hotspots, this region will be highly exposed to the impacts of climate change. According to experts, the average temperature in the region could rise by 2° by 2050, and by 4° by the end of the century, while rainfall will decrease by between 20% and 30% by 2050. Simultaneously, there may be a noticeable increase in extreme weather phenomena such as floods and droughts. These changes can increase rural depopulation, with considerable economic and social consequences. Income from agriculture will fall by an average of 20% throughout the MENA region, which will at the same time experience a significant growth in population. In Morocco, where agriculture today represents around 15% of GNP (80% in rural areas) and 85% of total water consumption, income from agriculture could decrease by as much as 40%. Governments thus have to anticipate population movements in order to put into place long-term strategies, both on the economic level and in terms of urban and land planning.
During the workshop organized in partnership with the United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNI-EHS) and the International Organization for Migration (IOM), around twenty specialists presented research and practical examples from countries in the region. The workshop addressed issues related to methodological approaches; past and future impacts of climate events on migration trends; the role of migration in facilitating adaptation in sending communities and implications of expected climate future migration on rural and urban development.
The main outcomes of the workshop included the adoption of general framework of analysis & methodology, the identification of knowledge gaps for future research work and the launch of a regional network of researchers. Moving forward, additional field data collection to be conducted in the region by RAND-WB-AFD in 2010 and a follow-up workshop to be held in the region in 2011.
The workshop agenda and the concept note are attached.
- Agenda of the Workshop
- Concept note: Managing the social dimensions of climate change in MENA: Climate change and human mobility
To access additional materials from the workshop including the power point presentations, please click here (in French only)
- CMI Cities & Climate Change program
- CMI Employment and labor mobility program
- CMI Environment and Water Cluster